Two Short Priced Favourites An Opinion

I speak from experience on two short priced favourites in a race and the last race I looked at recently opened my eyes a bit on approaching these types of races.  When I mean short, priced favourites I mean 1st and 2nd favourites in a Betfair market, but for these types of races I treat these two 1st and 2nd favourites the same. Ok the purists out there who may disagree, but you do what you want and I will do what I want and I am not being disrespectful here. I treat the percentage book value of the 1st and 2nd favourite in a horse race as one favourite in a aggregated sort of way.  I think you might get the point after reading this article.

In this example for this article/blog I got this particular race wrong and sat there a bit bemused, but then I thought put your dummy back in your mouth because I have just spat it out. I will go through this race but not naming horses I will use different names. 

Let us begin!

Now I like laying horses at odds below decimal odds 3.0 and I use the fabulous Betfair betting exchange to place my orders or bets/trades into the horse racing market.

The approach work like this,

1.    Identify a UK handicap horse race were the 1st and 2nd  favourites in the betting on the Betfair horse racing market are roughly 2.5 and 3.4 respectively or there abouts. 
2.    Make sure there are no more than 8 runners in the race.
3.    Now lay both horses that are 1st and 2nd favouroites, that’s the favourites 1 and 2 but make sure the decimal odds are below 3.0 for the 1st favourite before the race starts. So, you must lay earlier on in the day say 10.30am UK time and play the waiting game.
Now the next step is what I like to do and there are a number of angles to this so it depends on how you want to cook the sponge cake in other words how you treat the race. Now the two favourites I mentioned earlier will most likely flip flop in price but you can have a situation where one will shorten and the other lengthen but that is not always true because another other horse in the race could shorten causing the 1st or 2nd favourite to adjust accordingly. I think at the time the 2nd favourite decimal odds stayed the same before the race and 1 favourite shortened to I think 2.3.  Remember Betfair has a an efficient overround value compared to conventual bookmakers.
Now you have setup base camp and layed the 1st and 2nd favourites at 10.30am on the day of the race and you think how do I really get more money out of this Betfair market i.e. the race. Only one horse in theory can win but you also have dead heats but let us make it simple and ignore dead heats.

 Now I like to bet on the lurkers and I have mentioned this before they sit below the waterline like 3rd or 4th or 5th favourites the double priced horses.  You have to do a bit of work here and not just pin hook these lurkers out of the race card. I do the form and if like one or two of these lurkers (horses) I then back these. But I certainly do not dutch these!
Now you can get a bit greedy and start looking the great Tote betting website and look at some more exotic bets like trifecta and exactas. 

But why stop there? Look a the Betfair place market as well i.e. 3 or 4 places market. These offer some good value when you have a 6/4 favourite in the race and lurkers you want to back is also 6/4 or larger in decimal odds for 4 places in the place market. You are getting 4 places for the lurker and 6/4 for the favourite to win the race. I know which one I would back, the lurker in the place market and the win market.
Now when you do this approach to betting on horses, it can pay well but you can also  lose but that is punting. 

Lingfield 22.00 5f

Horse        Decimal Odd

A        2.3   favourite 1        We have layed it
B        3.4   favourite 2        We have placed a lay 2.52 order not filled yet
C        ??
D        8.0 --------------------- Waterline Bets
E        9.0
F        ??
G        ??
H        30.0    ------------------ Lurker Bets

If we look at a hypothetical race example above where ?? means make up your decimal odds. We take the scenario we have definitely got matched on horse A but waiting for a match on horse B. But it’s early so we can check sporadically during the day to ensure both horses favourite 1 and favourite 2 are match. If favourite 2 does not get match just  cancel the bet.

Now at this point I have a lurker horse H at decimal odds 30.0. So what do we do with it? We fancy the horse but let us look at the Betfair place market 4 places, no but I have just suddenly changed my mind here. My gut says it could run well and win the race here so we place an order/bet at a higher decimal odd and wait in the win market. If its matched place a bet at lower decimal odds in the win market before the race starts and then you are going in-play. But I am feeling a bit adventurous today let’s move to the excellent Tote website lets place a trifecta on horse A B and H the outlay is quite small. But greed has taken over here so let’s just go for an exacta here on horse A and H.

We could even look at the Betfair A Vs B market for horses A and B if it is there, this is match bet between two horses. But this match bet is a different ball game.
Now you might think this approach is difficult, but I will let you know just do the maths and logic and you will understand this approach better with more practice. I personally like the lurkers at double figured prices in UK handicap races in low grade stuff class 5 and 6. I am just fascinated by the magic of these races and the horses that compete in them I just see them as a puzzle that interconnects on horse form.

Hope you enjoyed it.

Good luck!