What To Look For When Betting On Horse Racing UK

The simple answer to this is value, what do I mean by value, I mean backing horses with a greater implied probability of winning the race. I will use the adage a horse is decimal odds 2.0 on a betting exchange. This is before the race starts now if you can obtain 2.4 for the same horse you are making an extra 0.4 profit on that horse which adds up in the long term. Now I have got the baby lecture over with let’s jump into the deep end of this fascinating subject.

My approach decimal odds spreads Betfair

I use the excellent Betfair betting exchange and look at a race for decimal odds patterns. I mainly look at UK horse races especially low graded races class 6 and class 5 AWF- all weather races. The tracks Wolverhampton, Chelmsford and my beloved Kempton. I look at the decimal odds spread across the race. Ignore the crazy priced horses at the bottom of the market like the 60.0 etc. Look at the decimal odds spread and look for decimal odds patterns that make your horse form selection easier. Remember the market is generally right!

Remember Betfair uses a near 100% book unlike conventional bookmakers who use an overround as high as 136% and more and I will not dwell on this too long!

Example Race Decimal Odds Patterns

Horse        Decimal Odds
A               3.75
B               3.85
C              4.1
D              5.6
E              17.0

Now this looks a difficult race there is a tight spread of decimal odds for horses A to D. Horse E also has a chance of winning at decimal odds 17.0. In other words, the market is undecided. The decimal odds for horses A to D look similar and thus represents an undecided market. You could dutch the racehorses A to D but this would give you a book value of approximately 94.9%. This is very little profit and horse E will probably rattle down the outside and win the race. I think you can guess I do not like this race and I would not even bother doing the horse form on it!

Good luck!