Outsider Horse Racing System

You have probably read a number of my articles on my website, but I have never really delved into outsider horse racing systems because everyone knows outsiders are hard to pick and developing an algorithm is quite difficult. There is really no difference in the Google search terms between outsider and longshots but I want to add this to outline both search terms are targeting large priced horse websites.  One search term will produce more search results (websites) than the other.

So let us begin this little blog or article. I am fascinated by longshot/outsider’s horse selections as they are difficult to assess in terms of horse form, it’s like finding a needle in a haystack. I know these types of selections have low book value and have a very low implied probability of winning a race but that makes it more of a challenge. So, would you rather back 5 winning selections at decimal odds of 2.0 (evens) or one winner at 21.0 (20.0)? 

Now you might say this is an easy question to answer so why do so many punters want to back shorties e.g. low priced horses. Quite simply they want winners, they do not look at the long game and it is long term profit what we want. You need a high consistency rate when backing low priced horses but I will let you do the maths on this. Even worse these low priced selections are not reflecting their true price or odds. In other words the public back these and thus causes a price swing due to momentum in the wrong direction. In other words, the price shortens then it will hit a price that the public will not bet on it. This is mainly happens on the Betfair betting exchange. There are other betting exchanges out there, but I only use the excellent Betfair exchange. Now if the back price can shorten the price can also drift. 

Now lecture over, are you like the lion waiting for the 20/1 (decimal odds 21.0) winner probably not or the punter wanting a supply of winners at short prices. Enough of the small talk and let’s put some meat on the bone excuse the pun.

Finding Winning Outsiders

Firstly, do not follow the crowd and look for horses that are showing poor recent form and but have shown form at a better BHB (OR – Official Rating) and in better class race during its racing career. I once a read an excellent book that looked at this type of horse selection methodology in detail which was backed up by course statistics, I thoroughly enjoyed it.  

Also look at what other horses the outsider selection has beaten in its past races and the decimal odds of those horses it has beaten. Our outsider may have not won the race but that is irrelevant and that is were thank God punters exist who look at obvious horses at skinny decimal odds. In a particular race look for a group of clustered horses with low decimal odds like 3.0, 3.4, e.g. a tight spread. But do remember a race cannot have too many low-priced horses especially on Betfair as this has a very efficient book value and could not accommodate this.  

You need to be a detective and look for crumbs or key horse form snippets in an outsiders/longshots previous racing career. These snippets of horse form data that are not obvious to most punters set you aside from everyone else but guess what most punters cannot be bothered to find the golden fleece, are you a Jason or a Joe the Saturday punter, I will let you make up your mind. I will give you an example race Micks Spirit that won the race at 25/1 on the 22 January 2025 to look over and show you how I approached the race. In fact, I nearly missed it, but I also let gut instinct play a part and at 25/1 these types of selections are always worth betting on.

22nd January 2025 Lingfield 1.25 Micks Spirit  25/1Won

“Visualising UK Horse Form “.