How To Pick Winning Horses

How To Pick Winning Horses In UK Horse Races

The title of this article how to pick winning horses is a tough question to answer. We would all like to be sunning ourselves in warmer climes around our pool at our villa watching our horses win.

We certainly cannot pick winners of horse races all the time, but we can certainly pick winning horses that make us a long term profit and that is the difference. But what do I mean by this?

You can have 5 winners out of 10 horse selections and make more profit than 10 consecutive winners. Now do not get me wrong you still have to pick winning horses. But the magic sauce to this is obtain the correct decimal odds for your selections when they do win! Sadly, most punters do not understand this and that’s why they lose in the long term.

How To Pick Winning Horses And Mathematically Implied Probability

We will now look at the maths first. If you pick horses at double digit prices realistically, how do you expect to pick a high frequency of consecutive winning bets at those odds?
The answer is no.

The implied probability is against you unless you have horses in training who are potential superstars!

The point I am trying to make here is that the price or decimal odds of your selections has a big factor in picking winning horses especially if you are using betting exchanges.
If a horse is decimal odds 10.0 or 9/1 in old money, then there is a reason for it. Likewise, the same applies to a horse at decimal odds 2.0 or evens. 

A Light Bulb Moment How To Pick Winning Horses

What if I said how to pick winning horses is half of the picture. You also need to obtain the correct decimal odds for your bets or selections. If a horse is decimal odds of 2.0 on the betting exchanges and you think it should be decimal 3.0 then why would you bet at decimal odds 2.0?

You have lost financially before you have started or should I say the race has been run!
Obviously, the horse must win. 

Horse Form Influences Picking Winning Horses

Now we have sorted out the decimal odds or price and the importance of this mathematically and long term profits now onto horse form.
If you expect to pick winning horses by looking at the last 3 positions a horse has finished or some other combination of horse form variables, forget it!
Reading horse form is hard work and then multiply that by N number of races to study brain fatigue sets in.

Only try to focus on certain race distances and horse racing codes and become a master at that.

Hope this has helped you.