Betfair Decimal Odds Movements Today
Introduction
I have studied Betfair pre-race off decimal odds movements for many years over thousands of UK and Irish horse races. Now when I started this journey I was very naive and made too many assumptions about the Betfair market in front of me in terms of decimal odds movements. I used the old cliché the Betfair decimal odds have shortened considerably on the 2nd favourite for the UK or Irish horse race therefore this horse must be the winner, how wrong I was and more importantly how stupid I was. Now do not get me wrong horses that do shorten do win races and there lies another problem which I will discuss later. These observations on Betfair Decimal Odds Movements are my own personal opinions so take them or leave them it is up to you. I hope you enjoy this article and find it useful and more importantly profitable.
Betfair Decimal Odds And Decimal Odds Movements
How do we define a substantial Betfair decimal odds movement?
We first have to obtain two decimal odds values over a specified time window and that is important. Plus we have to understand the decimal odds movements in relation to the decimal odds values for the specified time range chosen. Now this time range could be 1 hour or 5 minutes etc before an event starts such as a horse racing event. We also have to factor into it how much money has been matched in this market to ensure there are no artificial or false spikes in the decimal odds movements.
Let us look at an example of a Betfair decimal odds movement 10 minutes and 10 seconds before a race starts for two horses A and B.
|
Odds 10 minutes Odds 10 seconds Odds Differential
Horse A 6.2 5.3 0.9 Horse B 24.0 23.0 1.0 |
In the above table both odds have moved in 0.9 and 1.0 respectively but which decimal odds movement has the most impact?
Obviously the decimal odds 6.2-5.3 = 0.9 for horse A.
We could not just use a simple rule looking for decimal odds differential greater than or equal to 1.0 across a UK horse racing market for a possible profit making opportunity. If we increased our time window to an hour before the race started rather than 10 minutes the values would be completely different again. I have not even factored in any other horses decimal odds movement in the race!
The Betfair Decimal Odds Movement Patterns I Observed That Made Money
Now I documented all of my findings on this subject and formulated pre-race off Betfair trading strategies for UK and Irish racing markets. I basically isolated 3 distinct patterns and automated a Betfair strategy for each pattern. I tested these for a year recording every result. What is interesting is that each Betfair trading strategy can run against the same market in parallel with no conflict.
I have written two books on these 3 patterns they are expensive as to reflect the time spent on this.
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I must confess the findings will surprise you!