Lucky 15 Tips
Why is a Lucky 15 Mugs Bet
A lucky 15 bet is a mug punters bet it’s as simple as that. The only people who profit from this are the bookmakers and not you. So why do I make this bold statement, quite simply is that it is difficult to get 1 winner never mind 4 winners. A lucky 15 bet involves picking 4 horses which are then combined into 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 four-fold accumulator. So we have a total of 15 bets based on the singles, doubles, trebles and four-fold bet combinations mentioned previously. As the lucky 15 contains four single bets we only need one winner to collect but that does not always mean a profit if only one horse wins.
Lucky 15 Bet Example
Our 4 horses in our lucky 15 bet are Red, Blue, Green, Yellow
Horse Odds
Red 2/1
Blue 2/1
Green 2/1
Yellow 2/1
I have made all the odds 2/1 to make it easier. We will use a stake of £10 which is the amount we are prepared to lose. So our total return if all four horses win is £170 which is £160 profit, not bad for £10 you might think.
So let’s look at the scenario of 3 winners and 1 loser this will give us a return of £42 and profit of £32 for 3 winners in the lucky 15 bet.
So let’s look at the scenario of 2 winners and 2 losers this will give us a return of £10 and no profit in other words we have not won or lost for selecting two winning horses.
So our final scenario is 1 winner and 3 losers this will give us a return of £2 and loss of £8 for 1 winner in our lucky 15 bet.
You could make the argument that some of the horses odds in our lucky 15 bet might bigger than 2/1 which is correct but remember the bigger the odds the less chance of the horse winning a horse race based on mathematical probability. You could be really good at horse racing form and have the edge in the betting market and understand when horses are overpriced or you have inside information.
In our lucky 15 bet example above 2 winners and 2 losers give us no profit and no losses but you would be pretty cheesed off having a zero profit day with 2 winners, I certainly would.
Picking one winner in a race is difficult enough not to mention finding four winners on a race card and combined this with low odds a lucky 15 bet is the quickest way to the poor house.
A Lucky 15 Bet Alternative
Now I have highlighted the pitfalls of a lucky 15 bet I now want to present an alternative to this.
Step 1 Use Betfair betting exchange to obtain better prices. This will give you more profit in the long run.
Step 2 Back each horse in your intended lucky 15 bet as a single bet on the Betfair exchange and if the horse wins take a percentage of your profit and place it on the second horse and repeat this for the other two horses in your intended lucky 15 bet. How much profit stake you place on each horse is up to you, the aim here is not to lose your stake and get some profit. You might argue that with this approach I will not make as much profit if I had just placed one lucky 15 bet. Yes you are probably correct but this alternative approach allows you more control over your bet and allows you take profit as each horse runs its race. The key to this approach is to maintain your initial lucky 15 betting stake and ultimately your betting bank in the long term.
Lucky 15 Double Bets
A lucky 15 bet has 6 doubles I love betting on doubles these are my favourite bets. My approach is to place my first bet say £100 on the first horse in the double. I use the Betfair betting exchange and try to obtain a higher price on the horse in-play when the horse is running it’s race. I then green up if there is a healthy profit and use a percentage of that profit to stake on the second horse in the double. If the first horse loses I will still back the second horse and try and green up for profit. With this approach I am trying to protect my initial stake at all times and end the day in profit. This approach will only work if you are at a Betfair screen or have a bot to place the bets automatically for you.
Lucky 15 Affiliate Links
These lucky 15 affiliate bookmaker links make my blood boil as they usually consist of a tipster’s four horse selections at compressed odds as most of the horse selections are being backed by the public. The tipster website that is promoting the affiliate link will receive a commission when a mug punter signs up to the bookmaker and places a lucky 15 bet. I will not dwell on this too much but I think you can work it out.
Lucky 15 Conclusions
How many times will a punter get 4 winners in a lucky 15 bet you may ask yourself. The normal scenario is for one or two horses to win with a no profit or for a miserable profit. The large returns of a lucky 15 bet for a small stake suck the punters in like bees around a honey pot. You will often here lucky 15 bets being promoted on television or radio by racing pundits. The key to making a profit on horse racing betting is backing horses at larger prices than their current betting odds consistently over a long period of time.
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