Favourites Horse Racing System

 

This is a very tricky subject to discuss as you can approach this in several ways. I personally think a favourites horse racing system does not work but there is one exception that I will explain later. We know you cannot go far wrong looking at the top 4 in the Betfair betting market. The winner of a horse race normally comes from the top 4. So immediately if you back the favourite then one of the other 3 horses in the top of 4 of the betting market is there to beat your horse. If we are to adopt some sort of favourites horse racing system, then we need to add some more predicates or else you are just betting blind.

Let us look at an example horse race if the favourite is decimal odds 5.0 which is 4/1 in old money, then the favourite has a 20% chance of winning the race. If the horse has decimal odds 2.0 then you have a 50% chance of winning the race. So, we could add a predicate or condition that we only back the favourite in a horse race whose decimal odds are less than or equal to 2.0. We could add another condition to this favourites horse racing system that we only use the system on non-handicap horse races, so we do not have to worry about the weight the horse is carrying. Now you can see we are using filtering in this horse racing system, and we are getting more selective on what horse we are backing which is favourite for the race.

But Stop There!

 

What I have mentioned above is a crude and basic favourites horse racing system will not suffice. Let us consider the condition Betfair decimal odds 2.0 which is evens in old money. You will win some races and lose some races by the nature of the mathematical probability.  We can turn this to our advantage by simply backing these types of horse racing favourites at higher decimal odds than their implied odds. For example, if a horse is decimal odds 2.0 we could back it at decimal odds 2.1 we immediately have a advantage over the long term. Of course, these inflated decimal odds need to get matched pre-race off or in-play!

 

The Correct Favourites Horse Racing System

 

By using the approach above we can greatly enhance our favourites horse racing system by one simple approach and that is look for the top trainers and jockeys who are riding your favourite. Remember money talks and what I mean money buys the best horse blood lines. Plus, top jockeys want to win races and trainers want to make money for themselves and the horse’s owners. The final note to add to this is only back favourite horses in top class races as the horse form is more evident in these types of races.