Longshot Horse Racing Tips Today
Longshot Horse Racing Tips Today UK
Introduction
I will make this bold statement straight away, “This book finds big priced winners in UK handicap horse races” easily and consistently!
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I need to make a very important statement here backing double figure priced horses can return some huge profits but you must remember they all do not win, more will lose races which is to be expected. There is a reason why the horse is such a big price it is mainly due to the fact the horse has not won for a long time. Another reason is that a horse could be out of its depth in other words running in a higher class of race.
Most punters want winners every day at any odds this makes them feel good. They think they are making a profit, how wrong they are and the bookmakers take their money every day with a smile on their faces.
Another mistake the average punter makes is that they will take current SP starting price of a horse and not look for a larger price. So say a horse is 2/1 that’s decimal odds 3.0 on the Betfair betting exchange. They will readily take these odds. A more profitable approach is to take higher odds like decimal odds 3.5. Ok you might think there is not much difference between decimal odds 3.0 and 3.5 but it adds up over a year and that is where your profit is. The only way to profit in horse racing is to back horses at larger odds than what is being offered. The betting exchanges show the true odds of a horse just before the race starts. As these odds are derived from many punters and bookmakers who are using the betting exchanges then the price of the horse before the race starts is its true odds. This price is a consolidated view and it is normally correct and near the mark.
This system also finds large priced horses that are placed 1st 2nd 3rd or 4th regularly in a horse race and these can be exploited in the Betfair place market at some juicy odds. I have taken decimal odds of 7.0 on four places in a horse race and mopped up.
You can also back to lay these double figure priced selections in the Betfair win market and hedge your position for a profit whichever horse wins the race. This also applies to the Betfair place market as well.
What Is A Long Shot Horse
We need to get this out in the open straight away because we need to look at betting on long shot horses correctly from the start as mathematically they lose more than they win. When long shot horses do win they give a large financial return that allows for the longer losing runs. If you were to back short priced horses every day you have to be winning more races then you are losing in other words you have to be very consistent. With this approach there is no surplus profit to absorb the losses. Short priced horses do get beaten and you can soon be in a position that you need many wins just to get back to break even. The only way around this is to back short priced horses at bigger odds than their starting price SP or Betfair starting price SP I will touch on this later in the book.
My definition of a long shot is any horse that is 9/1 or larger with standard bookmaker prices not the betting exchange prices. We will use the conventional bookmaker odds in our horse racing system for the selection criteria but back these horses on the Betfair betting exchange for larger odds.
Backing on long shot horses is not for everyone as some people cannot take the long period of losses and their emotions and bank balance forces them to return to backing shorter priced horses.
How I Found This Long Shot Horse Racing System
I have written more than 10 books about UK horse racing aimed at handicap horse races these are the types of races I love to bet in. They are a great puzzle to work out and most punters will shy away from these types of races. This is a real pity as they are missing out on big odds winners and placed horses. I can never really understand why punters back short priced horses and combine these in doubles. I get great pleasure from backing big priced horses and watching them win or being placed and then listening to the horse racing pundits say things like, did not have that horse on my list or I overlooked that one. No, the horse form data was out there and you missed it because you have to look and analyse all the races and quite simply there are too many races in a day to perform this successfully. I do think there is so much waffle out there on the racing portals confusing the average punter every day. These racing pundits also make statements like, it’s bred by this particular horse or the horse does not like soft ground the usual stuff. I hate it when horse racing pundits plug a horse before the race starts, they normally get beat and they are normally short priced horses!
Enough of the rant I decided to spend approximately 3 months modelling horse racing form that focused purely on UK handicap horse races and horses that were double figure odds at SP not BSP – Betfair starting price. I will come onto Betfair later but to be fair to the punters out there I used the traditional starting price SP as all punters can get this price. You often see tipsters quoting inflated odds on their winning selections you have to be up at 5am to get these odds! I wanted to produce a horse racing system that would help every day punters bet on double figure priced horses and also the horse racing system had to be easy to apply. Horse racing does have a great number of horse form variables and yes quite rightly these do help in horse selection analysis. But punters can get paralysis by analysis which results in bad horse selections as potential bets.
Most punters do not have the time to apply complex approaches to horse form data when making their selections for the day. I also wanted to make this long shot horse racing system easy to automate. This is a very important topic which I cover later in the book.
The system can be used manually quite easily just using the excellent free racing post website. But if you automate this horse racing system you will enjoy it even more. I will dedicate a chapter to automation later in the book. Once you have automated it you can go one step further and automate your betting or trading using a Bot that takes the list of horses produced by the long shot horse racing system, but more on that later.
If you want to select your own longshot horse racing tips today I suggest purchasing my excellent book below then you will not be reliant on tipsters.
