Best Backed Horses Today
Best Backed Horses Today – Betfair Market Movers
We can look at best backed horses today or betfair market movers in terms of steamers where punters are backing the horse to win and the horse has gained momentum via punters and traders following the trend. Then we have the reverse where punters and traders are laying the horse and the horse is drifting in the betfair market.
If a certain horse or horses in a betfair horse racing market are being backed then some horses will drift in price due the over round on the betfair market nearly being perfect i.e. nearly 100% so the market has to adjust to cater for this.
Then we have a third situation where a horse flat lines in the market so there is no bias move in the market for the horse or horses in other words the horses are not steaming in or drifting out in the market it’s just making small moves in decimal odds in the betfair market.
What Is The Best Time To Check For Market Movers
I am using betfair to explain in more detail about the time of the day and market moves for horses that are steaming or drifting in the market. If for instance the first race of the day in the UK starts at 1.30pm then you should start looking at the market at 11am and onwards and there must be enough volume of money traded on any horse to consider if it’s a steamer or drifter. Small volumes of money arriving into the market early in the day can cause horses to move erratically in price. You need real evidence in volumes of money that traders/punters are backing or laying a horse and the money on either side of the book has been matched. I tend to take a snapshot of a betfair horse racing market starting from 8am and then repeat this every hour and check for market movers. When the public are backing horses and their prices are shortening then other horses in the betfair market will lengthen. A horse can steam in just before the race starts if some racing pundit has recommended the horse punters will latch on to this. It also might be a popular jockey who is going for a four timer on that race day so the public jump on with the fear of missing out. The same applies to drifters if a horse starts sweating at the start of a race the price of the horse will lengthen.
If you are a betfair trader then 3 to 5 minutes before the horse race starts is normally a good time to get involved. The money starts arriving into the market in good volumes with traders opening and closing their positions.
If you are a punter then you can watch for market movers and from a backing point of view then ask for a bigger price for that steamer. So say the favourite has steamed in from betfair decimal odds 3.0 to 2.3 during the course of the day just before the race starts you could place at back bet at 3.4. It might not get matched, only if it loses the horse race it will definitely get matched. If it gets matched and wins the race then you have backed a steaming horse at bigger odds. Most punters will back this steamer at its current odds which is a big mistake as you can never make a profit with this strategy in the long term.
You can also perform a back to lay on this horse and edge your position for a green book, the back bet must get matched first before you lay the horse. The same method applies to horses that are drifting but in reverse laying at a lower price first and then backing the horse at a bigger price when the initial lay bet is matched.
Can You Guarantee A Market Mover Will Win Or Lose.
The answer is NO if a horse is steaming in it does not mean it will win the race and if horse is drifting it will not always lose. Punters and traders follow trends and if they see a market mover they will take a position this causes momentum in one direction. The horse will eventually reach a price were traders or punters will exit their positions. The markets can be manipulated to force steamers and drifters so be conscious of this.
Horses are animals and do not always run to their true potential they have off days or their mark, their true potential is being hidden for a later day. Some horses fall or leave the gate badly in flat races. A jockey can ride a poor race or judge the pace of the race badly. There are many reasons for horses losing or winning a race just because a betfair market displays a steamer or drifter the horse does not know this!
Do not dismiss drifting horses if you are punter as they do win! You will often hear racing pundits indicating a horse has drifted just ignore it.