How To Make Money Laying Horses On Betfair
How To Make Money Laying Horses On Betfair IN UK Horse Races
Yes you can make money laying horses on Betfair but it is not as easy as you think many punters wander into this with the understanding you have typically N-1 runners in horse race on your side where N is the number of horses in the race and 1 is the horse you have layed to lose the race. In other words we want any one of the N-1 runners to win the race and we are in profit!
Let’s say we have a 12 runner UK handicap horse race great, we have 11 other horses that could win the race in other words these 11 horses are on our side, wrong!
You May Ask Why How To Make Money Laying Horses On Betfair Is Not That Easy
In order to answer this question we need to look at some factors that make it difficult to make money laying horses on Betfair.
- The Betfair price, the decimal odds of your horse you want to lay.
- The type of UK horse race you want to lay a horse in.
- Number of horses in the race.
The Betfair price, the decimal odds of your horse you want to lay.
Some punters look at large priced horses in a horse race for example decimal odds 10.0 or larger 20.0 and even larger and yes most of these horses will lose based on their mathematical probability which calculated from their selection’s Betfair decimal odds value. But how much money can you lay these types of horses for?
Say we have a horse we want to lay at Betfair decimal odds 20.0 and we lay it for £20 then we have a liability of £38 if the horse wins and a profit of £2 if the horse loses. Now let’s take this further say we adopt this strategy and we have layed 7 losing horses so we have won £14 less Betfair commission. Now we lay our 8th horse at say decimal odds 10.0 but unfortunately the horse wins by a head! Our liability is £18 to win £2 we are now £4 down after 8 horse races. Now this scenario will happen and you will lose - trust me! Plus laying horses for a £2 profit is not going to fund your lifestyle. Once we start increasing our stake to say £10 then our liabilities are increasing considerably.
So let’s look at laying horses at lower Betfair decimal odds to combat this potential liability we could lay horses at Betfair decimal odds 3.0 so our £2 would give us a liability of £4 if your selection wins and £2 profit it loses. Yet again how to make money laying on Betfair for a living has hit another problem and that is probability of a horse winning a race. Now our selection we have layed at decimal odds 3.0 has a 33% chance of winning the race and we know the Betfair market is pretty efficient and is a consolidated view across many types of people punters, traders and bookmakers etc.
So in a nutshell we have not really gained an advantage here as we are basing our lay strategy on the Betfair decimal odds of our horse selection.
We could lay more than one in the race to reduce our overall liability or we could lay at lower Betfair price while the horse is in-pay. Now some punters will lay horses at Betfair decimal odds of 1.01 or 1.03 but how often we hear that £2K or more was matched on Betfair on a horse at 1.03 and the horse won, ouch! This happens more than you think and is not a strategy I would use to make money laying horses on Betfair.
The type of UK horse race you want to lay a horse in.
Do we lay horses on flat, jumps or all weather horse races that is the question? If we look at jump racing then our horse which we have layed could fall and they do as that is the nature of this type of horse race. They can fall due to a horse or jockey mistake or tiredness or the horse is just a bad jumper of fences or hurdles. So we do have an advantage here in laying horses in these types of races. You could look for short priced horses that have sketchy jumping of hurdles or fences. But this approach is not really concrete proof for me to use a strategy to lay horses.
A better strategy is to identify horses that have not run at a track so say we want to lay a horse that has only run at park tracks like Kempton park i.e. if that horses is suddenly racing at a track with a stiff uphill finish we could use this as a good indicator to lay the horse.
We are moving away from just laying horses at their Betfair decimal odds and now looking for potential weakness in a horse. We could also add race distance and going, has our horse ever competed at the distance or on that going? This is where we are doing our home work and not just guessing and you cannot guess when trying to make money on Betfair!
Number of horses in the race.
I tend to only look at races with more than 7 runners and ignore the myth the more runners in a race the better as our Betfair odds determine the probability of a horse winning a race! I like horse races with a tight spread of decimal odds at the top of the Betfair market such as,
So How Do We Make Money laying Horses On betfair
We have already established that laying horses in a horse race based on Betfair decimal odds is not a viable strategy. We need to use our horse form reading skill to look for reasons why a horse will lose a horse race and you have to put the hard work into this to make money laying horses on Betfair. My approach is to look for certain types of races on certain types of courses at certain distances and finally at certain Betfair decimal odds. I backed tested this laying strategy using real money and I have automated this using the great Betfair trading software Bet Angel.