An Approach To Betting And Trading On Horses

An Approach To Betting And Trading On Horses In The UK

I wanted to write this article or blog on my approach to looking at race card and I use the brilliant racing post and I have used this for twenty plus years. Let me go through my approach every morning 7 days a week. But recently 2024 was a year that I was quite ill and it was hit and miss whether I did the UK horse form in handicap horse races which are the ones I love.

I normally start looking at a racing post race card before 10am on the days racing but I do confess Sha Tin and Happy Valley are always the meetings that catch my eye first. I then look at French racing there is something magical about this country, I think it’s the elegance of the people and race tracks.

I then move onto Irish horse racing and scan for particular trainers and jockeys which I will not reveal as it is not fair on them and why should I give out this information. I think punters should make their own judgement and not follow the crowd.

I then move onto the UK tracks but only focusing on handicap races starting with my love of all weather - AWF low grade stuff which means class 5 or class 6 with no diecrespetc to horses and trainers involved. There is something that fascinates me about low graded horses, to which some have been quite high graded at some time in their career and have slid down the handicap. I will not be too picky about these values, I am probably wrong, who cares!

Now I have stated the races I like, but will not touch races with just 3yo – 3 year old horses running in them and I will avoid staying races like 1m 6f and 2m races which are one mile six furlongs and two mile races. These tend to be tactical and burn up races and what confuses me them most is when horses are mixing codes. Like jump races to flat and the other way around. At this point for punters who do not know what a mile is it is equal to 8f which is 8 furlongs or 1600 meters which a metric used on the continent. I personally like using furlongs. Now when I see a race over 1m 3f this gives me the jitters as it unusual distance it’s normally sprints 5f 6f 7f then 1m then middle distance 1m 2f and finally 1m 4f ok you have 1m 1f 1m 3f etc. This is my approach so if you do not like it then that’s your opinion. An extra furlong to a horse that has to travel can make a whole lot of difference so by working this way I eliminate this doubt it’s just works for me. Normally the ground conditions come into play so why have the headache with an extra furlong, where the extra furlong for a horse running over 1m 2f has to stay 1m 3f.

After I have picked the class of a race and distance in all weather racing – AWF I then move onto the number of runners in the race and then this is were it gets interesting I look at the decimal odds spread on Betfair betting exchange for the race. But if I am laying a horse the decimal odds of the favourite must be less than 2.8 and I do not worry about odds on horses unless they are decimal odds 1.20 or less etc.

I always identify races where the favourite is less than decimal odds 2.8 then work backwards. In other words I try to get the favourite beat and that knocks out on average 40% or more of the book depending on the decimal odds of this favourite. I then focus on the favourite but the decimal odds of the other horses must be spread evenly apart from the two or three stragglers at the bottom of the market. These have little impact on the book value of the race and has Betfair overound is near perfect you can see why I use it. But do not be fooled these stragglers do pop up more than you think.

Now we look at the form of the favourite as follows in multiple passes comparing and contrasting to the other runners in the race card and we do this at pace.
1. Check BHB – Official Rating OR figure to today’s OR
2. Check class of race.
3. Check past race going to today’s going
4. Importantly check distance to today’s distance.
5. With the weight a horse carries you have to work backwards looking at previous key races the horse has run.
6. Check penalty (winning prize money) values of previous races and today’s race.
7. Check trainer jockey win ratio.
Then cross check against N-1 other horses in the race where -1 is the favourite you have identified to lay.
View the race comments of all horses while you are doing steps 1 to 7 above.
I look at dam and sire distances.
Finally look at owner and breeder.
Honesty Here!

There are other factors here but I cannot give everything away and I will not plug any books here.

Now if the favourite is a lay we mark that and then check the rest of the race card for the winner there might be two or 3 selections in a race and you do not dutch them and make the rookie mistake. You repeat the steps above and eliminate horses and you are left with potential winners or placed horses.

This is one my favourite and most recent eBook and paperback book I have written and I use this every day.

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Hope you enjoyed it.