High Strike Rate Horse Racing Systems
High Strike Rate Horse Racing Systems
There is no such thing as high strike rate horse racing systems especially for the UK racing. Why may you ask? Well, it is quite simple as we need to firstly understand the definition of a high strike rate system in terms of mathematics and a punters own perception of the above article title. My definition as a seasoned trader is one that produces one 33/1 winner a month where in that month I have placed a maximum of 31 single bets. If I repeated this system over a year and every month was successful in terms of profit then this be definition is not a high strike rate horse racing system, but yes, it is a profitable one. But if life was only like this and unfortunately its not like that, anyway enough of hypothetical situations let us put some more flesh on this article.
A Brilliant Definition
I am only interested in profit from my horse selections, and I made this quite clear earlier. Psychology and emotions effect people’s decision making and judgment when placing bets on their horse selections. I will give you a simple scenario here and I think this is a common one across the landscape.
Tom the punter wakes up in the morning he is an above average punter and understands horse racing form at a good level. There is one thing he has missed and all due respect to Tom he has a busy social and family life. So, he does the horse form in the morning and then picks his selections and then places them on a betting exchange or on his bookmaker’s accounts. He has missed one vital thing that determines a long term profitability. He has not really put any effort in obtaining the best prices on his selections as he is due to be at his mother’s house to take her weekly food shopping and is currently running late and is rushing around, I think we have all been there. It’s amazing how this last step of the selection process is missed, price is king, and I have been there. I must also confess I was quite late to the party in this respect regarding prices.
Do you get my message here, have we all not been in the situation once or twice before in our lives. Now let us rewind Tom has 4 good selections today in individual races. What he should do is the following,
1. Wait till the market has settled. Preferably after 10am on the days racing.
2. Take a 20 minute break and get a beverage and return to his or her desk.
3. Then look what they are trying to achieve from today’s racing. Now most punters want winners, but Tom is a bit cannier than the average Joe. He takes his first selection A and sees its 9/1 or decimal 10.0. But he has a brain wave here he says let’s put these 4 selections in a doubles, trebles and finally a four timer. The return shows an healthy £8K profit if all 4 selections come in, in other words have won. Now I have done this type of bet many times before in the past and I was a mug punter. This type of bet only result in a nice winter vacation for someone and that was not Tom, now I am being a bit sarcastic here. We all know who has the best suntan we will leave it there, do the maths.
4. Now you get the message from point 3 above but I have not really stated anything as yet about high strike rate and my interpretation of it and this is why you are reading this article. The flesh on the bone is that strike rate means nothing without implied odds off your selections winning the race and the best odds you can get for the horse to win the race, simple formulae (Best odds>Implied odds) with a minus odds variant. I have not even mentioned frequency of wins/losers against your total overall bets over a minimum period of a year. In this article I am purely talking about betting here on the outcome of a horse race event and not the art of trading pre-off or in-play. Now I am sure there is a simple high strike rate model model out there that is easy to the naked eye to digest and easier for the punter to understand.
Frequency of bets
Implied odds
Best possible odds
But I am not that good at maths in fact I could never understand quadratic equations at secondary school and most rich people are not that academic so enough on that.
A Frequency High Strike Rate Model
A high frequency strike rate is where the price of horse selections must be so that the frequency of wins can be established via implied probability. By making the former statement a high strike frequency must be backed up by short, priced winners or somebody who can back larger priced horses at the same frequency rate as short priced horses.
So we can deduce,
A high strike frequency model coupled with medium priced or large priced winners is the best. There is just one catch, if you are not good at horse form than the latter in other words large priced winners will not cut the mustard. This is why punters fail, you must find the sweet spot in prices. Now if you could back 6/4 shots at 3/1 every day voila!