Do Not Be Swayed By The Price Of The Favourite In A UK Horse Race

This is the quickest way to the poor house! Do not get swayed or bullied by a short, priced favourite in a UK handicap horse race. These horses are often hyped up and the decimal odds contract and the punters follow the herd taking these low prices. But we live and learn, and some punters will wake up, but most do not. A general consensus on a short, priced favourite for a race is not a qualifier for a bet it should be a qualifier for not having a bet. I like to lay these types of horses only if the decimal odds are in my favour. I have completed a number of articles on short, priced favourites up to a maximum decimal odds of 3.0 or 2/1 in old money and the results speak for themselves. It amazes me how punters latch onto these horses as they look certainties on paper plus put a top-class jockey booking on the horse and that adds more weight to picking this horse as a possible wager.

The Short Priced Favourite Mind Set

One word laziness! Most punters cannot be bothered putting the hard graft into reading horse form. Let us look at an example race. The favourite is decimal odds 2.0 or evens in old money. It’s a UK handicap horse race and we now look at this short, priced favourite and try to understand why the odds compilers have priced up this horse accordingly or the betting exchanges have targeted this short, priced favourite.

The story goes like this,

The favourite won its last couple races in similar company and class, and the weight hike was not too much of a burden. The short, priced favourite BHB – Official rating OR has risen so the horse was improving. 

Now the implied probability of the short, priced favourite implies it has a 50% chance of winning the race. This purely down to mathematics but horses are not machines and anything can happen. The short, priced favourite does not know it has an even’s chance of winning the race.

Now my approach to this race is to get the short, priced favourite beaten or obtain a larger price than decimal odds 2.0 of evens if I think the horse will win the race.
I look at the horse form of the favourite looking for any weakness in its horse form.
I then look at the other horses in the race and see if they can beat the short, priced favourite.

I can make three decisions on this short priced favourite,

1.    Back the short, priced favourite at larger decimal odds before the race starts and sometimes in-play.
2.    Lay the short, priced favourite.
3.    Back another horse in the race.

Hope this helps to make your own mind up on a race and do not follow the crowd at cramped decimal odds.

Good luck!